Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-02 3.632062 3.936316 4.270006 4.666196 5.127874 5.654127 6.307152
2025-02-09 3.257763 3.666560 4.145581 4.759142 5.541081 6.529992 7.921712
2025-02-16 2.962618 3.413009 3.963296 4.704490 5.710307 7.085521 9.230714
2025-02-23 2.754016 3.228743 3.827578 4.666857 5.866243 7.621064 10.634927
2025-03-02 2.586652 3.074797 3.706496 4.621254 5.987384 8.110671 12.108474
2025-03-09 2.448911 2.944726 3.600265 4.576572 6.092577 8.583847 13.719091
2025-03-16 2.344076 2.848501 3.528780 4.569119 6.246771 9.163122 15.791834
2025-03-23 2.277787 2.798232 3.514789 4.641934 6.536354 10.048014 19.054082
2025-03-30 2.173606 2.688286 3.406107 4.555607 6.540247 10.382157 21.139309
2025-04-06 2.079584 2.586952 3.302520 4.466506 6.524952 10.671675 23.322628
2025-04-13 1.977026 2.468345 3.166178 4.312700 6.371922 10.630907 24.424482
2025-04-20 1.939700 2.440748 3.163303 4.376587 6.632044 11.586892 30.180813
2025-04-27 1.926165 2.447565 3.214044 4.537647 7.112806 13.265062 42.460524
2025-05-04 1.897401 2.430279 3.226056 4.632777 7.478985 14.818241 59.743568
2025-05-11 1.838866 2.365694 3.159353 4.580953 7.522911 15.465441 73.619567
2025-05-18 1.787959 2.310294 3.104094 4.544982 7.596612 16.245738 95.076835
2025-05-25 1.739033 2.255821 3.047332 4.501347 7.646494 16.979357 125.588650
2025-06-01 1.693490 2.204696 2.993372 4.458579 7.692510 17.733203 174.280536
2025-06-08 1.657643 2.167043 2.959578 4.451445 7.823964 18.894084 295.718450
2025-06-15 1.638128 2.153760 2.965318 4.521137 8.159504 21.132570 1179.217372
2025-06-22 1.592409 2.097906 2.896811 4.438508 8.089005 21.523678 3784.142971
2025-06-29 1.548568 2.043707 2.829031 4.353177 8.001439 21.810970 NaN
2025-07-06 1.495894 1.974254 2.733016 4.205763 7.731701 21.085217 NaN